Monetization intelligence
Pricing decision cockpit
Model price, demand, AI cost and margin before making the move.
● Scenario: Growth plan refresh
Projected MRR
$286.4K
+12.2% vs current
Projected ARR
$3.44M
+12.2% annualized
ARPU
$57.28
+16.9%
Gross margin
76.4%
+8.7pp
Conversion
8.2%
−1.8pp modeled
Revenue sensitivity
12-month scenarioThe model prioritizes revenue durability, not maximum sticker price.
Recommendation
confidence 82%TEST BEFORE ROLLOUT
Raise price while introducing a visible AI credit allowance. The modeled ARPU and margin gains outweigh the conversion risk—if validated in a holdout cohort.
Revenue upside+$32.2K MRR
Margin expansion+8.7pp
Primary riskHeavy-user churn
Pricing studio
Build the offer
Change the value metric, price and AI allowance. The cockpit recalculates instantly.
Pro plan scenario
Hybrid pricingUnit economics
modeledProjected conversion8.2%
Revenue / month$242.6K
AI cost / month$10.5K
Gross margin76.4%
Annualized revenue$2.91M
Economically attractive
Price captures more value without pushing modeled margin below the 70% guardrail.
Customer economics
Who should pay more?
Segment pricing around willingness-to-pay and cost-to-serve—not just company size.
| Segment | Share | ARPU | AI usage | Gross margin | Pricing action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMB / Casual | 42% | $39 | Low | 84% | Protect |
| SMB / Power | 26% | $58 | High | 68% | Meter |
| Mid-market | 22% | $129 | Medium | 79% | Expand |
| Enterprise | 10% | $410 | High | 63% | Negotiate |
Experiment lab
Price change, treated like a product experiment
Define guardrails before the launch so “more revenue” doesn't hide a retention problem.
A/B test design
RecommendedControl$49 / month
Treatment$59 + 1,000 credits
Primary metricNet revenue / visitor
Guardrail30-day churn ≤ +0.5pp
SecondaryAI cost / active account
Decision thresholds
pre-registeredShip ifNRPV ≥ +8%
Investigate ifChurn +0.5–1.0pp
Kill ifNRPV < 0%
Sample guidance≈ 4–6 weeks
Do not optimize on conversion alone
A lower conversion rate can still be the right outcome when the customers retained have materially higher value.
Decision memo
The executive call
A concise rationale a PM can take to pricing, finance and growth.
Recommendation: run a controlled price test
Decision. Move the Pro plan from $49 to $59/month and bundle 1,000 AI credits, rather than adopting uncapped usage immediately.
Why. The modeled scenario increases ARPU and gross margin while preserving a predictable customer bill. A visible usage allowance creates a natural value metric for AI-heavy accounts.
Tradeoff. The model assumes conversion falls by 1.8 percentage points. That risk is acceptable only if net revenue per visitor improves and 30-day churn stays within the guardrail.
Next step. Run a 50/50 holdout experiment, pre-register the thresholds, instrument AI cost per account, and review the cohort after 4–6 weeks.
PM call: TEST, don't ship globally
This is a monetization hypothesis—not a forecast. The experiment converts uncertainty into evidence.